With the recent policy change announced by the Fed in regard to reducing it’s bond purchases, interest rates have gradually ticked up in anticipation. For the first fiscal quarter of 2014 mortgage lending declined to the lowest level in 14 years with the largest decline measured in the refinancing market. Loans for new home purchases were for the most part unchanged during the first part of 2013 but did dip down during the 4th quarter.
According to Inside Mortgage Finance as reported by Nick Timiraos of the WSJ, lenders funded $235 billion in mortgage loans during the period January – March 2014 which is a dramatic 58% decrease from the same period last year and a 23% decrease from the last quarter of 2013.
The sluggishness of the housing market could very well be an indicator of the anemia of the economy in general. When the housing market is strong GDP growth begins to improve. The softness in the housing market could be indicative of low wage and job growth. Consumers are unwilling to purchase homes at higher prices with money that is more costly than it was 6 months ago. When your dollar buys less the consumer stops buying, especially the investor.
If the Fed envisioned the housing market as it’s initial catalyst to boost the economy these figures might be cause to reconsider. Refinancing fell 75% during the first quarter of 2014 in comparison to the same period of time in 2013 according to Inside Mortgage Finance. “Refinancing has made up on average more than 40% of all mortgage lending since 2000, it fell to 47% of all mortgage lending in the first quarter, compared with 78% a year earlier.” Nick Timiraos, WSJ
Lenders facing this challenging market, in an attempt to bolster numbers are restructuring the requirements for new home loan qualifications by easing the standards they had recently adopted after the Fannie Mae Freddie Mac fiasco. Loosening underwriting however might not ease the mortgage decline if consumers buying power has been decreased due to damaged credit, insufficient income due to job loss or cut backs.
The decrease in loan purchases and refinancing however might be indicative of a broader picture of economic uncertainty and true unemployment figures.
* Excerpts from WSJ article by Nick Timiraos and Eric Morath